STEVEN M. KEMP, Ph.D . SID KEMP, PMP
 |
| Business Statistics Demystified |
Many people find statistics challenging, but most statistics professors do not.
As a result, it is sometimes hard for our professors and
the authors of statistics textbooks to make statistics clear and practical for business students, managers, and executives. Business Statistics Demystified fills that gap.
We begin slowly, introducing statistical concepts without mathematics.
We build step by step, from defining statistics in Part One providing the basic
tools for creating and understanding statistical reports in Part Two, introducing the statistical measures commonly—and some not-so-commonly—used
in business in Part Three and, in Part Four, applying statistics to practical
business situations with forecasting, quality management, and more.
Our approach is to focus on understanding statistics and how to use it to
support business decisions. The math comes in when it is needed. In fact,
most of the math in statistics is done by computers now, anyway. When the
ideas are clear, the math will follow fairly easily.
Business Statistics Demystified is for you if:
. You are in a business statistics class, and you find it challenging.
Whether you just can’t seem to think like a statistician, or it’s the
math, or you’re not sure what the problem is, the answer is here. We
take you through all the rough spots step by step.
. You are in a business statistics class, and you want to excel. You will
learn how to use statistics in real business situations, and how to
prepare top-quality statistical reports for your assignments.
. You are studying business statistics to move up the career ladder. We
show you where statistics can—and can’t—be applied in practical business situations.
We wrote this book so that you would be able to apply statistics in a practical way.
When you have finished with this book, you will find that
you can:
. Understand and evaluate statistical reports
. Help perform statistical studies and author statistical reports
. Detect problems and limitations in statistical studies
. Select the correct statistical measures and
techniques for making most basic statistical decisions
. Understand how to select the appropriate statistical techniques for
making common business decisions
. Be familiar with statistical tools used in the most common areas of business
. Avoid all the most common errors in working with and presenting statistics
. Present effective statistical reports that support business decisions
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Our first thanks go to Scott Hoffheiser, our administrative assistant, whose
understanding of statistics, proofreading skill, and skills with Microsoft
Equation Editor® and in creating graphs with Microsoft Excel® were indis-
pensable, and are well illustrated in Business Statistics Demystified. If you
like the quizzes, then you will be as grateful as we are to Anna Romero,
Ph.D. Professor Mark Appelbaum, currently of the University of
California, San Diego, was the first person to be successful in teaching me
(Steve) statistics and deserves special thanks for that. Our Dad, Bernie
Kemp, a now retired professor of economics, offered some wonderful sugges-
tions, which improved the book immensely. More importantly, he taught us
about numbers before we learned them in school. Most importantly, we
learned all about the uncertainty of the world and the limits of measurement
at his knee. Our Mom, Edie Kemp, provided support, which allowed us the
time to write, always the sine qua non of any book, as did Kris Lindbeck, Sid’s wife.
Dave Eckerman and Peter Ornstein, both of the Psychology Department
at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, have supported the first
author’s affiliation with that institution, whose extensive research resources
were invaluable in the preparation of the manuscript of the book.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Steve Kemp is a Research Assistant Professor at the University of
North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where he received his Ph.D. in Psychology
in 1993 from the L. L. Thurstone Psychometric Laboratory. He has taught
Statistics at the Master’s level at the Nursing school at UNC/CH. Steve
does research in such exotic areas as neural network simulations of behavior,
situational evaluations of behavioral simulations, and abductive reasoning.
He is the inventor of the InSitu testbed (www.InSituTestbed.org). In previous
lives, he has worked in data processing, software development, technical writ-
ing, advertising, and retail. This is his first book. When not writing or
researching, he is a computer programmer and statistical consultant. Steve
lives south of town with his cat, Eureka. Those interested in Steve’s research
or personal life can browse his Website: http://www.unc.edu/~skemp/
Sid Kemp, PMP, is a certified Project Management Professional and a
leading expert in project management for information technology, with
over 15 years of experience. He assists Fortune 500 companies and major
governmental agencies in the deployment of new technology and in develop-
ing and deploying custom project management methodologies. Sid has
trained thousands of first-time managers and team leaders in PM—in public,
corporate, and government seminars. He has over 10 years of experience as a
trainer and author of training programs and manuals. Sid is the author of
two other McGraw-Hill books that may be of interest to readers of
Business Statistics Demystified: Budgeting for Managers (2002) and Project
Management Demystified (2004).
North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where he received his Ph.D. in Psychology
in 1993 from the L. L. Thurstone Psychometric Laboratory. He has taught
Statistics at the Master’s level at the Nursing school at UNC/CH. Steve
does research in such exotic areas as neural network simulations of behavior,
situational evaluations of behavioral simulations, and abductive reasoning.
He is the inventor of the InSitu testbed (www.InSituTestbed.org). In previous
lives, he has worked in data processing, software development, technical writ-
ing, advertising, and retail. This is his first book. When not writing or
researching, he is a computer programmer and statistical consultant. Steve
lives south of town with his cat, Eureka. Those interested in Steve’s research
or personal life can browse his Website: http://www.unc.edu/~skemp/
Sid Kemp, PMP, is a certified Project Management Professional and a
leading expert in project management for information technology, with
over 15 years of experience. He assists Fortune 500 companies and major
governmental agencies in the deployment of new technology and in develop-
ing and deploying custom project management methodologies. Sid has
trained thousands of first-time managers and team leaders in PM—in public,
corporate, and government seminars. He has over 10 years of experience as a
trainer and author of training programs and manuals. Sid is the author of
two other McGraw-Hill books that may be of interest to readers of
Business Statistics Demystified: Budgeting for Managers (2002) and Project
Management Demystified (2004).
HOW TO GET THE MOST OUT OF THIS BOOK
If you are just learning statistics, we recommend you start at the beginning,
and work your way through. We demystify the things that other books jump
over too quickly, leaving your head spinning. In fact, you might read
Part One before you look at other books, so you can avoid getting mystified
in the first place!
If you are comfortable with statistics, skim Part One and see if it clarifies
some of the vague ideas we can all carry around without knowing it, and then
use the rest of the book as you see fit. If you want to focus on performing
statistical studies and preparing statistical reports—or even just reading
them—then Part Two will be a big help. Part Three is a useful reference for
the more advanced statistical techniques used in business. And Part Four
makes the link between statistics and business interesting and exciting.
SIDEBARS FOR EASY LEARNING
In Business Statistics Demystified, we want to make it easy for you to learn
and to find what you need to know. So we’ve created several different types
of sidebars that will introduce key ideas. Here they are:
. Tips on Terms. Definitions and crucial terminology.
. Critical Cautions. Something statistical you must do—or must avoid—
to get things right.
. Key points for exam preparation.
. Survival Strategies. What to do on the job.
. Handy Hints. Other practical advice.
. Fun Facts. A little bit on the lighter side.
. Case Studies. Real-world examples that teach what works—and what doesn’t.
. Bio Bites. The authors’ experience—if you learn from what we’ve been
through, your statistical work will be easier.
. Quick Quotes. Bits of wisdom from folks much smarter than we are.
Table of Contents
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xv
PART ONE What Is Business Statistics? 1
CHAPTER 1 Statistics for Business 7
Doing Without Statistics 7
Statistics are Cheap 8
Lying with Statistics 9
So Many Choices, So Little Time 10
Math and Mystery 11
Where Is Statistics Used? 12
The Statistical Study 16
The Statistical Report 17
Quiz 17
CHAPTER 2 What Is Statistics? 20
Measurement 21
Error 30
Sampling 36
Analysis 42
Quiz 45
CHAPTER 3 What Is Probability? 47
How Probability Fits in With Statistics 48
Measuring Likelihoods 48
Three Types of Probability 52
Using Probability for Statistics 62
The Laws of Probability 83
Quiz 84
Exam for Part One 87
PART TWO Preparing a Statistical Report 93
CHAPTER 4 What Is a Statistical Study? 95
Why Do a Study? 97
Why Use Statistics? 97
What Are the Key Steps in a
Statistical Study? 99
Planning a Study 101
What Are Data and Why Do We Need Them? 102
Gathering Data: Where and
How to Get Data 104
Writing a Statistical Report for Business 107
Reading a Statistical Report 107
Quiz 109
CHAPTER 5 Planning a Statistical Study 111
Determining Plan Objectives 113
Defining the Research Questions 113
Assessing the Practicality of the Study 116
Preparing the Data Collection Plan 116
Planning Data Analysis 118
Planning the Preparation of the
Statistical Report 119
Writing Up the Plan 120
Quiz 123
CHAPTER 6 Getting the Data 125
Stealing Statistics: Pros and Cons 125
Someone Else’s Data: Pros and Cons 127
Doing it Yourself: Pros and Cons 129
Survey Data 132
Experimental and Quasi-Experimental
Data 137
Quiz 138
CHAPTER 7 Statistics Without Numbers:
Graphs and Charts 140
When to Use Pictures: Clarity and
Precision 141
Parts is Parts: The Pie Chart 142
Compare and Contrast: The Bar Chart 144
Change: The Line Graph 152
Comparing Two Variables: The Scatter
Plot 154
Don’t Get Stuck in a Rut: Other
Types of Figures 156
Do’s and Don’ts: Best Practices in
Statistical Graphics 160
Quiz 171
CHAPTER 8 Common Statistical Measures 173
Fundamental Measures 174
Descriptive Statistics: Characterizing
Distributions 179
Measuring Measurement 195
Quiz 205
CHAPTER 9 A Difference That Makes a Difference.
When Do Statistics Mean Something? 208
The Scientific Approach 209
CHAPTER 10 Reporting the Results 238
Three Contexts for Decision Support 238
Good Reports and Presentations 239
Reports and Presentations Before the
Decision 244
Reports and Presentations After the
Decision 245
Advertisements and Sales Tools Using
Statistics 246
Quiz 247
Exam for Part Two 249
PART THREE Statistical Inference: Basic Procedures 255
CHAPTER 11 Estimation: Summarizing Data About
One Variable 257
Basic Principles of Estimation 258
Single-Sample Inferences: Using
Estimates to Make Inferences 262
Hypothesis Testing 212
Statistical Significance In Business 227
Quiz 236
CHAPTER 12 Correlation and Regression 267
Relations Between Variables 268
Regression Analysis: The Measured
and the Unmeasured 273
Multiple Regression 281
CHAPTER 13 Group Differences: Analysis of Variance
(ANOVA) and Designed Experiments 285
Making Sense of Experiments With Groups 286
Group Tests 289
Fun With ANOVA 295
CHAPTER 14 Nonparametric Statistics 298
Problems With Populations 298
A Solution: Sturdy Statistics 299
Popular Nonparametric Tests 301
Exam for Part Three 312
PART FOUR Making Business Decisions 317
CHAPTER 15 Creating Surveys 319
Planning and Design 319
Conducting the Survey 324
Interpreting and Reporting the Results 325
Quiz 325
CHAPTER 16 Forecasting 327
The Future Is Good To Know 328
The Measurement Model 329
Descriptive Statistics 335
Inferential Statistics 337
Cautions About Forecasting 340
Quiz 344
CHAPTER 17 Quality Management 346
Key Quality Concepts 346
Root Cause Analysis 348
Statistical Process Control 353
Quiz 358
APPENDIX A Basic Math for Statistics 361
APPENDIX B Answers to Quizzes and Exams 364
APPENDIX C Resources for Learning 366
Index 369
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Product details
Price
|
|
|---|---|
Pages
| 399 p |
File Size
|
6,229 KB |
File Type
|
PDF format |
Print Version
| 0-07-144024-0 |
Copyright
| 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc |
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